2019 Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) hits the UK

I still cant get my head round why didnt BJ stop all flights coming into the uk first sign of this virus?
This might be of interest:

 
So he said its too late so they admit they have fudgeed up well everyone in europe tbf shambles
 
This might be of interest:

they are talking on 12th of March

It's now known for instance there was a major outbreak in Edinburgh at a Nike conference late Feb. 25 cases tracked back, so how many asymptomatic and so on? take a 100 cases and go for r3 every 3 days an I get circa 25k cases in the wild by the time they were saying that from just one outbreak

their theory at the time was we now have hundreds of thousands of cases, catching a few hundred more flying in is irrelevant
 
I still cant get my head round why didnt BJ stop all flights coming into the uk first sign of this virus?
At the time the cost of doing this would have been viewed as catastrophic. China was reporting "only" 3000 deaths, so didn't look any worse than other seasonal nasties.

It was only late feb/early march as the exponential nature of the death curve was seen in Italy, causing the events that followed.

By then the virus was already well spread into the uk.

South America is now getting hit by it hard months after Europe, New Zealand just might get away with isolation policy, but it's just not viable for almost any other country.

It's been discussed before, 2019 Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) hits the UK

The scientists didn't believe interfering with air travel will have any effect. Will be interesting in a few years to see if the advice changes, but on this one I think the government followed the advice at the time.

Why they're now wanting to quarantine I've no idea, new scientists? It certainly wrecks air travel and holiday markets.
 
Hopefully the next US president is a human being and gets preventive measurements back in place.
 
412 new deaths today :(

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Also personally not happy about the consistent non-showing now of "people tested".

I'm in no way convinced at this point that the "small percentage of cases where the same person has had more than one test", is that small a percentage at all.
 
In the well known fairy tale, The Devil tempted Jesus for forty days and forty nights. One of the temptations was to tell him to jump off the highest point of the temple because the angels would break his fall.

Jesus responded that you shall not tempt The Lord thy God. So if Jesus had enough common sense to not do something so ****ing stupid, what makes these people think they can?

Religious indoctrination of this sort is tantamount to child abuse! :(

(Note how they initially misspelt "off" as "of" and then crossed it out, rather than just add another "f". DUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUH!

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Take the children to sane foster carers. And simply shoot dead the parents. Might make a decent fertiliser.
 
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Latest figures: overall death toll for the UK is now just over 47,300.
That's approaching 50% of the USA fatalities with only a fifth of the population

Do you really think the US figures have anything to do with reality?
 
I think it's easier to keep dragging out this Cumming's circus than address the people still dying of the disease.

During a pandemic, there are bigger fish to fry. The government should have been far quicker and decisive in dealing with this rubbish and not allowed the media to have a field week with it.

Do you mean they should have sacked the bong-eyed superior tw@t?
 


I'll just say this, that single moment right there was when the entire nation should be able to see that they think we're all mugs. And we're not even worthy of making an effort to concoct something that at least sounds the tiniest bit plausible.
 
So much of this doesn't whole pandemic doesn't make sense. The more we seem to know, the more questions we have.

What is clear (so far, at least!) is that this isn't a virus that's going to wipe out a massive proportion of humanity. In some ways, if we're going to have a pandemic, this is a good one to have. Would be better not to have one at all though.

Absolutely.

This virus is so feeble it’s practically benign.
 
For those who don't visit the political thread the Scottish excess mortality is now at 5148

The NRS are very good it seems, they get this all published from the previous Friday, we're still waiting on the Italy figure for any of April

the good news though, following the graph down, in 1-2 weeks we'll be back in normal territory for this time of year.

 
Interesting graph here showing france.

the C19 pandemic is similar to the 1969 Hong Kong Flu.

The only difference this time being France had a lock down to get the figures to where they are now.

 
412 new deaths today :(

EZCB7uAX0AA245Q.jpg


Also personally not happy about the consistent non-showing now of "people tested".

I'm in no way convinced at this point that the "small percentage of cases where the same person has had more than one test", is that small a percentage at all.
FWIW it looks like the weekly spike (due to lack of office staff to process the paperwork over weekends) has been moved from Tuesday to Wednesday because of the bank holiday...

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Professor David Paton is a good person to follow to see the trend based upon dates of deaths, rather than when they’re announced...



Oh and Ian Jones of the Press Association News Agency has been keeping tabs on the (lack of) testing figures...

 
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This is a good thread on what's going on in Switzerland, given they've been opening up and seeing no increase in cases:



Same thing seen in Germany.

But in other countries people listen more to how to behave or are they easier to control. I am not
found this dated 20 days ago

figures revealed that just 273 out of the 18.1 million people who entered the UK by air in the three months prior to the coronavirus lockdown were formally quarantined.
I went to Thailand late february to be with my wife for a month and the virus had infected 600 people there and the world was calling it the number 2 danger area after China. Apparently this was a big risk for me and i could get stranded with no healthcare for the virus. I was checked at the airport coming in for temperature and Asians were taken aside for special checks because of the growing threat in Asia. Then i found already everybody was wearing masks and gearing up. Within weeks all bars and restaurants and non essential shops were closed along with all leisure facilities. You could still walk the streets in pairs. International flights stopped followed by domestic flights and all train stations policed for spacing. Pretty well zero virus here now and they have only 2 weeks ago started to reopen but still no international flights coming in. They hit the problem like there was no tomorrow because they watched China. Apparently the British Parliament either thought the UK people were special with strong immune systems or just did not notice all the deaths in China and Italy. I watched it all with utter disbelief and so has my Thai wife asking why the UK did nothing. And you are correct guys not a single check at airports and anybody could wander in. Not just Boris though all of parliament more interested in Brexit than the virus. I am sure some people on the forum will say I am wrong but it has not been easy to see the inevitable take place in the UK because of lack of action despite good examples to follow
 
Because the vulnerable haven't got enough to worry about...


In addition, in my circumstance:

 
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Absolutely.

This virus is so feeble it’s practically benign.
Whether you regard the virus as "benign" for an individual really does depend upon their age and whether they have any pre-existing conditions. (And being male.) The following table is from the ONS looking at Covid mortality rates per 100,000 for England (on an annual basis I believe) using data from April - the worst month for Covid deaths.

Age bandMale + FemaleMaleFemale
<1 - - -
01-04 - - -
05-09 - - -
10-14 - - -
15-19 2.0 3.1 -
20-24 3.9 4.8 2.9
25-29 7.7 9.5 5.9
30-34 12.4 17.1 7.7
35-39 23.7 25.6 21.9
40-44 41.8 55.8 28.0
45-49 82.3 110.9 54.1
50-54 148.8 189.7 109.0
55-59 257.2 364.2 153.3
60-64 448.3 618.0 284.9
65-69 661.9 917.3 422.3
70-74 1,052.7 1,439.2 698.9
75-79 2,183.9 2,892.4 1,567.8
80-84 4,249.6 5,545.3 3,223.0
85-89 7,276.1 9,791.9 5,581.1
90+ 12,957.1 16,865.9 11,070.6

It is not unreasonable to say that for the young, Covid presents virtually zero risk. For example, despite there being around 25,000 deaths in total, nobody under the age of 14 died in this April period. The youngest death was someone aged 14 but the ONS notes that they only calculate a value where there have been at least 3 deaths per age group.

One epidemiologist on the BBC described deaths among those aged under 40 without a pre-existing condition as rare. The figures above support this as they suggest a total number of deaths of those under 40 of around 150 in April. (Including those with pre-existing conditions.) That is out of a population aged under 40 of around 28 million.

At the other end of the scale each of the age groups above 80 will have had around 5,000 deaths. That is despite these age groups being smaller than the others as not everyone makes it to that age.

For example, there are around 4 million people in the 25-29 age group (around 40 deaths) but 0.5 million in the 90+ group (around 5,000 deaths.)

The Covid risk for someone aged 90+ is around 1,000 times higher than for someone aged 30-34!

Within each age group the deaths will be primarily among those with pre-existing conditions. For example I read that 25% of those in intensive care have diabetes.
 
Risk of dying may be almost non-existent, it what about risk of permanent organ damage? Those are the sort of stats I want to see before I stop “staying alert”.
 
Well, Superdrug have emailed me this morning with a prompt to log in and check my messages regarding the antibody test. Pretty good turnaround seeing it only went in the post back to them on Tuesday:

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This is the result I expected to receive.
 

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