GarryF
Prominent Member
Well it just so happens Anders Tegnell was asked about the subject this week. Now many people have opinions but his is quite important, because he then implemented his on Sweden. It seems clear to me that with Sweden as an example the Imperial model has been "debunked"NICE aims to spend less than £30,000 per Qaly (quality adjusted life year). But that is not a hard limit; it will go twice as high for end-of-life drugs for example. So you are wrong. Oh, and the Home Office uses a different figure of £80,000. So you are still wrong by that other official measure.
Me personally, I use a different figure too, so who gets to decide the sensible figure? The government in charge at the time that’s who. If they decide the figure for Covid is £1million per Qaly so be it.
It’s a highly emotive subject, I personally would sacrifice everyone else in this country to save my child.
The other way of looking at it is how many years have been saved by lockdown? They expected 500,000 deaths if they did nothing. I think you’re wrong at your top estimate of 10 years, the truth is more like 30 years or more given life expectancy of 80 years. So as far as I can tell we are still within budget.
So when Neil Ferguson’s Imperial College model was published with its verdict for Sweden – wrongly claiming that the virus would rise exponentially without lockdown and pointing to 85,000 deaths – Tegnell was able to reject it because his Public Health Agency had enough in-house expertise to spot the flaws. In the end, there was no lockdown -and fewer than 6,000 deaths.
In terms of QALY saved, I recall a video here from early on, an American expert was saying the likely average saving was 9 months, Ferguson was talking 10 years.
Now I gave evidence from Scotland showing the average age of victims is around 80. So if we take your 30 year saving, you're either saying that this is all wrong and the average victim age is 50, or somehow people will soon be living on average until 110 if they survive covid... You maybe need to check your math.