2019 Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) hits the UK

NICE aims to spend less than £30,000 per Qaly (quality adjusted life year). But that is not a hard limit; it will go twice as high for end-of-life drugs for example. So you are wrong. Oh, and the Home Office uses a different figure of £80,000. So you are still wrong by that other official measure.

Me personally, I use a different figure too, so who gets to decide the sensible figure? The government in charge at the time that’s who. If they decide the figure for Covid is £1million per Qaly so be it.

It’s a highly emotive subject, I personally would sacrifice everyone else in this country to save my child.

The other way of looking at it is how many years have been saved by lockdown? They expected 500,000 deaths if they did nothing. I think you’re wrong at your top estimate of 10 years, the truth is more like 30 years or more given life expectancy of 80 years. So as far as I can tell we are still within budget.
Well it just so happens Anders Tegnell was asked about the subject this week. Now many people have opinions but his is quite important, because he then implemented his on Sweden. It seems clear to me that with Sweden as an example the Imperial model has been "debunked"

So when Neil Ferguson’s Imperial College model was published with its verdict for Sweden – wrongly claiming that the virus would rise exponentially without lockdown and pointing to 85,000 deaths – Tegnell was able to reject it because his Public Health Agency had enough in-house expertise to spot the flaws. In the end, there was no lockdown -and fewer than 6,000 deaths.



In terms of QALY saved, I recall a video here from early on, an American expert was saying the likely average saving was 9 months, Ferguson was talking 10 years.

Now I gave evidence from Scotland showing the average age of victims is around 80. So if we take your 30 year saving, you're either saying that this is all wrong and the average victim age is 50, or somehow people will soon be living on average until 110 if they survive covid... You maybe need to check your math.
 
Think people should report to the police etc if they see anyone they know who should be self isolating out n about.

It could be a neighbour who is self isolating, a child in your child’s year or school bubble (you can go out until your child gets symptoms) etc
 
I seem to remember a movie with Michael York, Logan's run I think it was, where you got bumped off at 30. Looks like this could be a good the future plan now but mercifully maybe a higher age group. The young spread the virus and the 50 plusses cop it.

50 plusses? Mercifully?

Bloody kids :)
 
I cannot find the source which I read about the Oadby and Wigston local restrictions starting on Tuesday. The number of cases in the 10 days which made them to decide the restrictions were from guessing, just 42 households!!! Two thirds of the cases in the deciding dates were from households with multiple cases (probably vast maj are in Oadby) and the rest were, at the time, single cases in households.

Put that into prospective, my road has 52 properties on it. Or another look at it, 2 cul-de-sacs.

So Oadby and Wigston has been implemented new local restrictions on the equivalent of one small street's worth of people. Wonder how many of them didn't adhere to rules of wearing masks etc.
 
Apologies for any misunderstanding. My post was not intended as a comment on yours. @IronGiant had pointed out the error of my ways and I promise to make every effort to improve. ☺
I'll tell you about being on idiot watch for seven months - sometimes having a reputation backfires.
 
It is expected so the question is in what areas and how severe.
 
It is expected so the question is in what areas and how severe.

Parts of East London has the worse numbers, but even then it still isn't as high as what normally triggers measures.

Also they seem to be saying people will now be asked to work from home again, least in London.
 
I have been working from home for six months and am in two minds about continuing that way.
 
I can't help but think that anything we do is a waste of time now people are back at work and children are back at school.
I've been very careful with social distancing, hand washing numerous times a day, I often wear gloves, visor, mask and apron at work, etc and I've still spent most of this weekend ill with a cold. I've had a sore throat for over a week as well as headaches, and woke up yesterday with a fever, constant sneezing and my nose running like a tap. The fever broke last night and I'm feeling a bit better today, not much though.
If a cold can spread so easily even with all these precautions I expect the virus can too. I work in a school so I regularly gets colds during the winter, but I didn't expect one so soon.
 
I seem to remember a movie with Michael York, Logan's run I think it was, where you got bumped off at 30. Looks like this could be a good the future plan now but mercifully maybe a higher age group. The young spread the virus and the 50 plusses cop it.
One of my FB friends said Eat Out and Help Out should be renamed as Eat Out and Catch Virus
Suspect this is one reason why the middle aged are filling up ICUs... as pretty much the only time I see anyone not wearing a mask inside local supermarkets it’s middle aged blokes who’ve staggered in after a few jars 🍻🧫 Also dread to think how many virus particles are sprayed from the mouths of staff serving food and drink in pubs and restaurants.🤔🤢

 
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I can't help but think that anything we do is a waste of time now people are back at work and children are back at school.
I've been very careful with social distancing, hand washing numerous times a day, I often wear gloves, visor, mask and apron at work, etc and I've still spent most of this weekend ill with a cold. I've had a sore throat for over a week as well as headaches, and woke up yesterday with a fever, constant sneezing and my nose running like a tap. The fever broke last night and I'm feeling a bit better today, not much though.
If a cold can spread so easily even with all these precautions I expect the virus can too. I work in a school so I regularly gets colds during the winter, but I didn't expect one so soon.

This is what I was saying earlier, both my kids are back, both have colds now but also we are coming into the cold/flu season, the load on testing system was bound to happen, what were parents supposed to do, pass potential covid off as a cold. It was always going to go this way, government should have seen it coming.

But things had to re-open, realistically keeping everyone in lockdown, lets face it, people would have blown a gasket by now. Thing is the furlough scheme is ending soon, if the government tell people there is another total lockdown then there will be serious job losses, unless they do another furlough scheme which from what I understand has been economically devastating.

As you just said anything now is a waste of time. You really are better off protecting the vulnerable now, the elderly, people with certain conditions etc, make sure they stay in, looked after and given financial support and let everyone else get on with their lives, use masks etc.

If people are in and out of lockdown it will get tedious, and as the pm himself said people will have had enough of it eventually. Already the protests which started small are getting bigger and will get bigger still and what started off as common sense is now getting into a progressively larger amount of rules, £10,000 fines, phone calls to make sure you are home and grassing your neighbour up.

No wonder the 1922 committee is bringing an amendment to make sure all future lockdown decisions are made through parliament and not the pm choosing what rules he wants.
 
This. Everyone knows what need to do ie protect vulnerable and save economy but no one has idea how to do it. First time round elders were sent to carehomes as measure but not sure how well that ended. We make special arrangements to 70+ then next vulnerable group in queue will start demanding protection for them too.

You're right that nation wide lockdown is not answer for at least now. The initial lockdown's goal was to flatten curve to protect NHS and with the current rate (of hospitalisations and deaths) surely NHS are coping very well. Problem is by the time NHS starts to get overwhelmed, it could be too late. Let's hope and pray for this not to happen 😍 .

Question is what are the alternatives? continue as normal, let NHS overloaded with covid patients?
Seems that Japan might provide a good example of how to minimise deaths whilst avoiding lockdown...

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I believe Japanese society is much more disciplined than most countries.
 
And they don't have a pantomime running the show. We're seeing just how useless in a crisis this lot are, whether people like it or not. Let's pray there isn't another crisis in the next four years. I shall say no more here on that anyway, other than let's hope we can get the testing sorted. As without it what we do matters little.
 
His maths may be different to yours (ours or anyone else's). If 134 were admitted a week ago and 8 days later another 134 were admitted, and no-one has been discharged yet, then the numbers have doubled :devil:
 
You really don't seem to understand how scientific modelling works in general and in epidemiology in particular or if you do, you are being deliberately obtuse.

Then instead of being being patronising, perhaps a lesson...?
 
His maths may be different to yours (ours or anyone else's). If 134 were admitted a week ago and 8 days later another 134 were admitted, and no-one has been discharged yet, then the numbers have doubled :devil:

I thought he had said that daily hospital admissions are doubling every 8 days, but I agree, I suppose you could interpret it in the way you have suggested.
 
I thought he had said that daily hospital admissions are doubling every 8 days, but I agree, I suppose you could interpret it in the way you have suggested.

I hasten to add, I was taking the piss out of him :thumbsup:
 
Think people should report to the police etc if they see anyone they know who should be self isolating out n about.

It could be a neighbour who is self isolating, a child in your child’s year or school bubble (you can go out until your child gets symptoms) etc

Don’t forget your haircut.
 
This time of year it’s the start of the colds season. I remember when I was at school, you could bet I would have a cold by week four of returning back to school - we started around 26th Aug.

If you are full of congestion, it’s not the virus, it’s a cold!

I’m dreading getting a cold as customers will be disgusted that we turn up for work ill. Yet we will get disciplinary action if we ring in sick.

Hopefully employers will understand and relax their sickness policies, esp with their employees that can’t work from home and work with the public
 

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