Horizon's 'How you really make decisions' - any thoughts ?

Toko Black

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The other day, horizon did a program on how humans think and make decisions.
It's something I've mentioned before with regards to decision making, beliefs and choices with regards to how we actually think rather than who we believe we think.
The ramifications for decision making not just for individuals, but in politics and economics is significant.
I was wondering if any of you are having a rethink regarding your own ideas, especially on economics which are effected by the large number of human cognitive biases we all possess ?
ie we can no longer rely on models based upon rational and logical consumer choices or even the decisions taken by politicians, financial experts and intelligence organisations.

Horizon 'How you really make decisions' - iPlayer
 
I'll have to watch it.

I was in a 'exchange' hifi shop the other day, and there was a guy in there trying to buy a piece of gear while selling his, and the whole exchange was bizarre.

The wannabe customer had such a weird thought process going on I felt for the seller, although he wasn't making it easy. Similar to what you say it got me thinking about how some people think differently, and maybe its a lack of education and rigour to replace what is obvious for others, or indeed there are multiple ways to think, but one or another more popular ones.
 
The other day, horizon did a program on how humans think and make decisions.
It's something I've mentioned before with regards to decision making, beliefs and choices with regards to how we actually think rather than who we believe we think.
The ramifications for decision making not just for individuals, but in politics and economics is significant.
I was wondering if any of you are having a rethink regarding your own ideas, especially on economics which are effected by the large number of human cognitive biases we all possess ?
ie we can no longer rely on models based upon rational and logical consumer choices or even the decisions taken by politicians, financial experts and intelligence organisations.

Horizon 'How you really make decisions' - iPlayer

I watched it. It doesn't change anything for me.

What's your conclusion TB ?
 
I watched the Horizon program and must admit my thinking and decision making processes, for what they are, were not excited enough for a rethink.

IMO there is nothing new with this idea. For example, project management teaches you to gather data and plan all in advance before carrying out the actions. Slow before fast. You can see the same process with lions on the hunt - they slowly plan it all out before leaping into action.

Humans are animals and we all share the same generic patterns laid down and refined over the years. There are faults within the patterns - so what? Nothing is perfect.
 
I watched the Horizon program and must admit my thinking and decision making processes, for what they are, were not excited enough for a rethink.

IMO there is nothing new with this idea. For example, project management teaches you to gather data and plan all in advance before carrying out the actions. Slow before fast. You can see the same process with lions on the hunt - they slowly plan it all out before leaping into action.

Humans are animals and we all share the same generic patterns laid down and refined over the years. There are faults within the patterns - so what? Nothing is perfect.

Doesn't it show that planning is also flawed because each part of the plan is blighted with exactly the same intuitive (fast ) thinking ? Its also compounded by not knowing everything there is to know. We can only plan within resource limitations and our previous experience. We tend to generalise. The reason is that we lack the capacity and time to consider every aspect of possibility. Within each choice comes infinite chaotic effects. What we really do with a plan is figure out how we are going to manage chaos. When we realise this is what we have done, then the impermanence of our creation is realised.

I wrote about this in my book. I tried to plan out a chess game, but the opponent reduced my plans to rubble unless he was following my rule book. Yet this is a game with only 64 possible places to move to and 32 pieces with defined rules. Now throw the chess game away and try planning a holiday. How much of the holiday is exactly how it was planned ( not just the activities but in relation to the promised result/reward ). Mostly its a series of haphazard events with a loose structure ( called the holiday ). Structured into the larger picture it might well have been a mistake to choose a holiday in the first place.
 
Nothing is perfect. In nature nothing is perfect - tweaking is going on all the time.

The bigger picture - evolution at play.
 
Nothing is perfect. In nature nothing is perfect - tweaking is going on all the time.

The bigger picture - evolution at play.

I disagree. Everything is exactly perfect as it is. Its our perception that nothing is perfect that drives our creativity. Its why we are prone to suffering. We are always trying to construct our ideal perfection. But in a world in which everything is perfect and flexible we try to create rigidity and permanence. The two clash. When we go outside the boundaries of tool creation we start to lose objectivity.

So we can create a tool, a computer, a building, a spaceship, but we cannot create permanence or constrain/determine nature. As humans we are part of the flowing of nature and creation. We have infinite capacity with limited intelligence/knowledge. The brain and mind are just a tool.

Our mistake is thinking that we are greater than ourselves. The tool of our brain is insufficient for our infinite nature. Its like we can create a surf board. We can learn to use that board, but we cannot determine the nature of the sea. We can anticipate and flow with it, but we don't control it.
 
I watched it. It doesn't change anything for me.

What's your conclusion TB ?

It hasn't changed my thoughts on the subject as that is already what I had taken on board.

What I was refering to is the potential need to rethink certain ideas and arguments put forwards on these forums:
- economic ideas based upon the notion that humans make rational choices on purchases for example.
- anti terrorism, immigration and other policies or actions we take or decisions we make.
- generally taking a step back and considering our own beliefs and ideas as to what drove us to come to those conclusions ie reason and logic ... or biases.
 
I watched the Horizon program and must admit my thinking and decision making processes, for what they are, were not excited enough for a rethink.

IMO there is nothing new with this idea. For example, project management teaches you to gather data and plan all in advance before carrying out the actions. Slow before fast. You can see the same process with lions on the hunt - they slowly plan it all out before leaping into action.

Humans are animals and we all share the same generic patterns laid down and refined over the years. There are faults within the patterns - so what? Nothing is perfect.

It is not that some people aren't aware there are faults in the 'patterns', it is more just how many faults there are and that we believe we are being logical and reasoned when in fact we are not.

You mention project management and being taught to gather data and plan in advance. The problem is, that fools us into thinking we are being slow, methodical and rational, but in reality, we are not accommodating for the myriad of cognitive biases and the fact that we aren't generally aware they are occuring at the time.

Even as you or I read these posts and write a reply, we are most likely making cognitive mistakes and tricking ourselves into believing we have reasoned through it.
 
Nothing is perfect. In nature nothing is perfect - tweaking is going on all the time.

The bigger picture - evolution at play.

The problem is, that we have created a world that is no longer reliant upon and infact divergent from evolution - to which some evolutionary responses and adaptions humans work against us.
Even in nature, evolved responses can work against the individual or even the group, but by and large, even if many of the species die out, others will carry on.
However, in the artificial world we have created for ourselves and the systems we put in place, evolution doesn't have a beneficial effect any more. For the most part, evolution holds us back and causes problems.
In essence, evolution dragged us out of the dirt and put us on the path to get where we are going, but now it holds us back due to it's limitations.
 
I don't feel as if the world around me is artificial. We have the tools that nature provided and we build stuff.

There are problems and limitations - but that presents the challenge. Evolution is not holding us back - the cognitive bias is tricking you and making you think it is.
 
I don't feel as if the world around me is artificial. We have the tools that nature provided and we build stuff.

There are problems and limitations - but that presents the challenge. Evolution is not holding us back - the cognitive bias is tricking you and making you think it is.

We live in a totally artificial world Alan - at least in the West. Our food, clothes, transport, housing, entertainment, health care, governments ... everything is a construct.
If you live in a cave or under a tree then you can claim it's natural, but if you live in a house made from bricks and mortar, with hot and cold running water, electricity and an internet connection, it's artificial.

Lots of animal have evolved to use tools and build nests, but due to a quirk of evolution, we have been able to go beyond that and instead of adapting to our environment, we now adapt the environment to us.

That fact is that you can go to work on a bus or in a car, work on a computer, get a sandwich for lunch, call in the supermarket for your food and see what you are doing because of artificial lighting at night.
 
None of the things you have mentioned is artificial. Even healthcare and governments are real - consist of people.

It is all real within the human framework. Bricks, mortar, water, electricity etc - all real.
 
None of the things you have mentioned is artificial. Even healthcare and governments are real - consist of people.

It is all real within the human framework. Bricks, mortar, water, electricity etc - all real.

artificial ɑːtɪˈfɪʃ(ə)l/
adjective
adjective: artificial
1
.
made or produced by human beings rather than occurring naturally, especially as a copy of something natural.

We largely no longer live by natural means - everything we use, consume and the environments we do it in are predominantly artificial.
 
It hasn't changed my thoughts on the subject as that is already what I had taken on board.

What I was refering to is the potential need to rethink certain ideas and arguments put forwards on these forums:
- economic ideas based upon the notion that humans make rational choices on purchases for example.
- anti terrorism, immigration and other policies or actions we take or decisions we make.
- generally taking a step back and considering our own beliefs and ideas as to what drove us to come to those conclusions ie reason and logic ... or biases.

Humans do make rational choices, not necessarily the most advantageous choices from a material point of view, but we aren't computers. We make decisions partly on what feels good. The 'feeling good' is part of the sum of the economic decision. That someone is satisfied with a worse deal doesn't make the decision a bad one for them.

The result of the decision is what ultimately counts. Climbing a tree feels good. The reward might just be a nice view or the feeling of satisfaction. Falling from the tree might change the view of the risk involved. This is important. We learn by failure and not by success. This is why failure must be allowed within any learning system. Its the feedback that leads to improvement.

One thing it confirms is that none of us are any better than anyone else. We are all individuals trying to do the best we can. There are no others, no organisations, Governments or anyone else who should be entrusted with making decisions for us.
 
artificial ɑːtɪˈfɪʃ(ə)l/
adjective
adjective: artificial
1
.
made or produced by human beings rather than occurring naturally, especially as a copy of something natural.

We largely no longer live by natural means - everything we use, consume and the environments we do it in are predominantly artificial.

That's a dictionary definition. There is nothing artificial. We might produce a bad facsimile of something but it is now another something of and by itself. Humans are natural and so is everything we produce.
 
That's a dictionary definition. There is nothing artificial. We might produce a bad facsimile of something but it is now another something of and by itself. Humans are natural and so is everything we produce.

That is an ideological/philosophical concept rather than an true answer.
We produce theoretical and abstract concepts, virtual worlds inside a computer or our imaginations - following the idea that everything we produce is natural, so is an abstract concept ?

The way I look at it, is there is a divergence from nature and the rules that govern it.
We are no longer at the mercy of evolution - modern medicine, engineering and technology mean that humans no longer are subject to natural selection.
 
That is an ideological/philosophical concept rather than an true answer.
We produce theoretical and abstract concepts, virtual worlds inside a computer or our imaginations - following the idea that everything we produce is natural, so is an abstract concept ?

The way I look at it, is there is a divergence from nature and the rules that govern it.
We are no longer at the mercy of evolution - modern medicine, engineering and technology mean that humans no longer are subject to natural selection.

Well a concept is just an idea. Some see a rope as a snake. It doesn't make it a snake because they think it is. The delightful perfume of a flower or the taste of fresh bread-the pleasure is not to be found in the flower or the bread. Then where does it come from ? :)
 
The delightful perfume of a flower or the taste of fresh bread-the pleasure is not to be found in the flower or the bread. Then where does it come from ? :)

Depends if the flower is natural or has been cultivated/cross bred for a particular scent and colour .... and I know there is such a thing as bread fruit, but the last I heard, your average loaf of bread needs to be made from harvesting wheat, seperating the seeds, grinding them, mixing them with water and usually some mixed with some ground up Nahcolite (baking soda) then baked ;)

Many things may contain natural materials, but it is the way we process, combine and utilise those materials to create things that don't exist in nature or exist in another form.

^ but all this is besides the point .... or maybe because of it. Our cognitive biases leading us to conclusions and ideas many iterations down the line where we believe or feel something is right so we dellude ourselves into justifying it all.

How much more dancing around and jumping through hoops trying to ignore or refute the dictionary definition of 'artificial' or that tarmac roads and computer chips are natural do we all have to do before we spot our own 'bias' :)
 
The forum, it's unnatural I tells ye... Burn it...

;)
 
Depends if the flower is natural or has been cultivated/cross bred for a particular scent and colour .... and I know there is such a thing as bread fruit, but the last I heard, your average loaf of bread needs to be made from harvesting wheat, seperating the seeds, grinding them, mixing them with water and usually some mixed with some ground up Nahcolite (baking soda) then baked ;)

Many things may contain natural materials, but it is the way we process, combine and utilise those materials to create things that don't exist in nature or exist in another form.

^ but all this is besides the point .... or maybe because of it. Our cognitive biases leading us to conclusions and ideas many iterations down the line where we believe or feel something is right so we dellude ourselves into justifying it all.

How much more dancing around and jumping through hoops trying to ignore or refute the dictionary definition of 'artificial' or that tarmac roads and computer chips are natural do we all have to do before we spot our own 'bias' :)

I think you missed the point. As it is all your own perception then everything must be artificial. The flower has no perfume or colour. To one person it is a stinking weed and to the next a perfumed image of beauty. It is not a single experience of a flower for everyone. The experience is manufactured in the mind. Everything is made of vibrating energy. It has no colour or texture of its own.

As you are moving towards mindfulness with the idea of slow thought, then consider how the flower is experienced. The first thought is that it is 'I' experience it- but who is experiencing this 'I' ? Who knows 'I'.

Your logical questioning is heading in a direction you might find a touch disturbing.
 
It takes thousands of years of water flow through rock for nature to create a system of caves in the rock. Man comes along and, using carefully controlled explosives and drilling, creates a similar system of caves in the rock in a few weeks. Two different processes - same result. The man-made system of caves by definition is artificial, or is it?

Ice taken out of a freezer for a scotch on the rocks - is it artificial ice?

So, not refuting the definition of 'artificial', just looking beyond the definition.

By the way, tarmac roads (now use bitumen) are made up of sand, stone and asphalt which is tar imported from Trinidad where there's an asphalt lake which never (allegedly) dries up.

If our cognitive and decision making abilities are at fault and we are all deluded - so be it. I take it all with a pinch of salt and, touch wood, it has worked for me so far (-ish).
 
And do we make good or bad decisions in our dreams? Are our cognitive processes faulty when we are sleeping ?

What about all the characters and objects in our dreams are they artificial or natural :)
 
Seriously though, why is this thread in Politics and the Economy? Shouldn't it be in GC? Although I can appreciate why we might not want it moved in there...
 
And do we make good or bad decisions in our dreams? Are our cognitive processes faulty when we are sleeping ?

What about all the characters and objects in our dreams are they artificial or natural :)

Good point.

From my understanding, sleep allows the brain to carry out 'housekeeping' duties - ditch the useless stuff and process and store useful info picked up the previous day. I'm guessing here: dreams are streamed out when storage of 'new' info is placed with the 'old' info in memory, that's why they are usually gobbledegook. But nobody really knows.

In addition, everything we see is history. It has happened, past tense. The eye sees the action from old light from a distance away, the rods & cons translate the info which is passed down the optic nerve to the brain, the brain translates and then processes the info from the eye to make sense of it and that is the bit we 'see'.

No wonder the police have problems with witnesses - ten people standing together see a road accident and produce ten different and often conflicting statements.

As far as economics is concerned, the program is quite right. The slow and fast thought processes are misused occasionally by the brain and can create some serious errors financially. There are occasions though where speed is necessary (on the stock floor for example) and slow analytical thought would loose huge amounts of money.
 

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