Predicted A level grades.

I love hearing the story about this student for the 10th* time :)

*40% inflation added...

I guarantee she gets a 1st and becomes one of the all time great students.

*Bookmark this post* :D
 
So they've learned nothing it seems.


Goodness only knows why they can't just draw a line under this now and move on, doggedly hanging on to it at this stage is quite bizarre.
 
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Goodness only knows why they just can't just draw a line under this now and move on, doggedly hanging on to it at this stage is quite bizarre.

Retaining the algorithm in light of the previous decisions is stupid. Exacerbating the situation by incorporating it only where it will further increase grades is moronic.

Just give everyone A* and be done with it!
 
At least we now have the most intelligent year of students in history by a long way - the proportion of A and A* grades increased by 40% on last year.

Cheers,

Nigel
Almost back to the Tony Blair years where A was so common they had to add the star.
 
Couple days now for opposition MP's to milk the issue before it dies away and next issue to try and ridicule government about next thing that pops up. Same old.
Yes it’s another COVID Dominic Cummings, but that is a big part of any oppositions job to bring these things up. I understand its an impossible situation but really feel sorry for kids who will have to take A level exams next year and won’t have the benefit of ridiculously inflated teacher estimates to determine their grade. I personally think they should have postponed the exams a couple of months but still sat them as normally as possible.
 
Goodness only knows why they can't just draw a line under this now and move on, doggedly hanging on to it at this stage is quite bizarre.

I'd guess it's so Eton and co can stay on top in terms of results. Gotta justify those expensive fees to parents somehow. (I say that in jest, but we'll see if it's borne out in the changed grades).

What a shambles, the Government should’ve recruited Professor Fry as a Tsar to help avoid this mess!





I don't think this Government likes experts as they'll give em a hard slap of reality and all Cummings best laid plans would coming flying apart at the seams. If they carry on as they have been, then Starmer should find it a lot easier to regain seats lost, than it would otherwise be (not saying he'll win if it's anything other than a Tory win at the next election it'll be another hung parliament). At some point Tory backbenchers will turn on Johnson. Cummings is dismissive of them so that'll end well.
Only so many times you can screw up in Government before voters decide it's time for a change.
 
I don't think this Government likes experts as they'll give em a hard slap of reality and all Cummings best laid plans would coming flying apart at the seams. If they carry on as they have been, then Starmer should find it a lot easier to regain seats lost, than it would otherwise be (not saying he'll win if it's anything other than a Tory win at the next election it'll be another hung parliament). At some point Tory backbenchers will turn on Johnson. Cummings is dismissive of them so that'll end well.
Only so many times you can screw up in Government before voters decide it's time for a change.

Aren't Ofqual the 'experts' in this case?
 
I'm really becoming quite irritated by the interviewing on the telly about this, with presenters repeatedly saying to pupils and teachers etc. "do you think you should be graded by your teachers as they know you the best".

This completely misses the point - pupils are being compared with the whole national cohort not the pupils in the class. Though none of the presenters make that point - it's almost as if they have no idea what they're talking about.
 
I'm really becoming quite irritated by the interviewing on the telly about this, with presenters repeatedly saying to pupils and teachers etc. "do you think you should be graded by your teachers as they know you the best".

This completely misses the point - pupils are being compared with the whole national cohort not the pupils in the class. Though none of the presenters make that point - it's almost as if they have no idea what they're talking about.

Journalism in his country is appalling, being used primarily to score political points (on both sides), not to inform.
 
Aren't Ofqual the 'experts' in this case?

The buck stops with Ministers when things go wrong (they are quick enough to bask in the limelight when things go well). If this were any other PM, Williamson would have been thrown under a bus and a U turn taken immediately. Not leave it a few days to let negative press attention build and leave a hapless Minister in place. One thing voters won't forgive or easily forget is the impression that a Government is incompetent, that usually leads to election defeat in the long run.

Education is the key to the countries economic fortunes, any further messing about will cost the Tories votes. There's no Plan B for next summer's exam season if COVID-19 is still causing disruption. I'm guessing the hope is that the Oxford University vaccine will prove viable by the end of this year (or one of the other ones) and that they'll be able to rush out a schools wide vaccination programme just before exams are due to take place to avoid disruption. Or they might not be and just be hoping COVID-19 disappears as quickly as it appeared.

We've got the worst government possible for a pandemic and a massive economic gamble due to come to fruition soon, which they'll probably mess up. Corbyn would have been equally as terrible. As I said elsewhere before the election, it was a choice between two poop sandwiches in the shape of Johnson and Corbyn. I voted for my local labour MP as I was looking beyond the election and a post Corbyn labour party. So far so good on that front.

If you have no idea how Westminster works, then watch Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister, satire but bracingly accurate even decades later.
 
The buck stops with Ministers when things go wrong (they are quick enough to bask in the limelight when things go well). If this were any other PM, Williamson would have been thrown under a bus and a U turn taken immediately. Not leave it a few days to let negative press attention build and leave a hapless Minister in place. One thing voters won't forgive or easily forget is the impression that a Government is incompetent, that usually leads to election defeat in the long run.

Education is the key to the countries economic fortunes, any further messing about will cost the Tories votes. There's no Plan B for next summer's exam season if COVID-19 is still causing disruption. I'm guessing the hope is that the Oxford University vaccine will prove viable by the end of this year (or one of the other ones) and that they'll be able to rush out a schools wide vaccination programme just before exams are due to take place to avoid disruption. Or they might not be and just be hoping COVID-19 disappears as quickly as it appeared.

We've got the worst government possible for a pandemic and a massive economic gamble due to come to fruition soon, which they'll probably mess up. Corbyn would have been equally as terrible. As I said elsewhere before the election, it was a choice between two poop sandwiches in the shape of Johnson and Corbyn. I voted for my local labour MP as I was looking beyond the election and a post Corbyn labour party. So far so good on that front.

Whilst (some of) the above may be true, neither was it in dispute. However in your attempt to be clever and score 'internet points' about 'the government not liking experts', you seemed to be oblivious to the fact that it was going with the view of the experts that caused the issue. That was my point.

Just as it was when we failed to lockdown as early as some people would have liked (with the benefit of hindsight).

If you have no idea how Westminster works, then watch Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister, satire but bracingly accurate even decades later.

Arrogant, but not unexpected.
 
Whilst (some of) the above may be true, neither was it in dispute. However in your attempt to be clever and score 'internet points' about 'the government not liking experts', you seemed to be oblivious to the fact that it was going with the view of the experts that caused the issue. That was my point.

The Ofqual chair resigning would only serve to protect the Minister in question and ultimately the Prime Minister. I don't score internet points. As far as the experts go, some appeared before the Education select committee a few months ago and raised concerns about the moderation process, to which Ofqual and the Government didn't respond to. A parent worked out how disastrous the algorithm was going to be and attempted to make Ofqual aware of it. Again ignored. The Government had plenty of chances to avoid this own goal.

There is a disregard for expert opinion if they don't fall into line with what Ministers/Cummings want to hear. Which is probably why PHE has been abolished and a quasi private/public sector body has replaced it with a chairman hand picked without a recruitment process. The rumour on that is if there is a second wave in the winter, Boris Johnson only wants people at press conferences who agree with him.

Just as it was when we failed to lockdown as early as some people would have liked (with the benefit of hindsight).

SAGE wanted to lock down earlier, for whatever reason Johnson delayed the decision.


Arrogant, but not unexpected.

Arrogant is ignoring other posters who've pointed out how flawed the algorithm is when you questioned it. Government sets the legal basis for bodies like Ofqual, ultimately if a body fails then it's the duty of the Minister to sort it out or resign if they ignored concerns from Civil servants and so on.
 
There is a disregard for expert opinion if they don't fall into line with what Ministers/Cummings want to hear. Which is probably why PHE has been abolished and a quasi private/public sector body has replaced it with a chairman hand picked without a recruitment process. The rumour on that is if there is a second wave in the winter, Boris Johnson only wants people at press conferences who agree with him.

PHE England has failed in its brief, hence the need to reform.

BJ didn't want a Nurse at the press briefing who was going to be used for political purposes, rather than medical.

SAGE wanted to lock down earlier, for whatever reason Johnson delayed the decision.
Do you have a link please, that contradicts everything I've read about this, including the involvement of Cummings at SAGE meetings.
etc


Arrogant is ignoring other posters who've pointed out how flawed the algorithm is when you questioned it. Government sets the legal basis for bodies like Ofqual, ultimately if a body fails then it's the duty of the Minister to sort it out or resign if they ignored concerns from Civil servants and so on.

I can imagine your reaction if I'd have started a reply to your claims about Uk debt and the IMF with 'If you have no idea how the bond market works...'...
 
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The decision to prolong this whole torrid affair has nothing to do with sticking by experts but everything to do with this administration's tendency to double down when things don't turn out as planned.

I'm assuming this is all about trying to appear masterful and resolved in a show of strength for the benefit of the EU to demonstrate we're not to be doubted.

World beating this, supercharged that, when will they learn these types of actions actually undermine credibility both at home and the world stage.
 
The decision to prolong this whole torrid affair has nothing to do with sticking by experts but everything to do with this administration's tendency to double down when things don't turn out as planned.

I'm assuming this is all about trying to appear masterful and resolved in a show of strength for the benefit of the EU to demonstrate we're not to be doubted.

World beating this, supercharged that, when will they learn these types of actions actually undermine credibility both at home and the world stage.

Oddly enough just made a similar point over in the section that shall not be named.

The only thing that the government are showing is how extraordinarily weak they are, and how they are ill-equipped to handle a crisis with any degree of competency. As the rest of the world watches and takes notes.

Anyway, if the rumours are to believed it turns out our young PM Marcus Rashford tweeted Boris on Monday morning with a picture of him holding a pen above a piece of paper entitled "A-Level Results Fiasco".

10 minutes later the U-turn was agreed :D
 
Anyway, if the rumours are to believed it turns out our young PM Marcus Rashford tweeted Boris on Monday morning with a picture of him holding a pen above a piece of paper entitled "A-Level Results Fiasco".

10 minutes later the U-turn was agreed :D
Pity he was not as effective against Sevilla.
 
The BTecs results have been pulled to regrade them in line with A Levels


My interpretation is “bugger, we’ve graded properly and have results in line with previous years rather than the massive grade inflation that the A Levels ended up with. If we publish these, our students will be massively disadvantaged compared with A Level students. We need to take them back and over-grade them so our students have parity”.

Cheers,

Nigel
 
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Well of course this is just ridiculous, the very nature of Btec courses means much of the work is practical based with teacher assessment playing a key role anyway.

In any other walk of life you would expect resignations and/or sackings but this is the world where connections and loyalty count above incompetence.

For those who dispute this please explain Baroness Dido Harding's continued existence, not only avoided being sacked after being totally useless but promoted further into arguably one of the most important roles in the coming months ahead.

scream-16_6155.jpg
 
The Ofqual chair resigning would only serve to protect the Minister in question and ultimately the Prime Minister. I don't score internet points. As far as the experts go, some appeared before the Education select committee a few months ago and raised concerns about the moderation process, to which Ofqual and the Government didn't respond to. A parent worked out how disastrous the algorithm was going to be and attempted to make Ofqual aware of it. Again ignored. The Government had plenty of chances to avoid this own goal.

Absolutely agree the algorithm was flawed. However, problem was that they were trying to come up with something to fix a very clear problem.

Teacher estimates were submitted three months ago and it was immediately clear that overall there was a massive grade inflation.

For example an increase in A/A* grades by 40% - anyone really believes that is correct is barking. The fact that teachers significantly over-graded is undeniable. This is why the BTecs have been delayed, because they haven’t been over-graded and they realise that if they don’t retrospectively over-grade their students will at a disadvantage compared with A Level students.

The problem was that this inflation wasn’t created by a general, across the board tendency for teachers and schools to be generous. Most schools predicted accurately the ones that over-estimated were in the minority.

So you couldn’t have a simple algorithm that simply shifted the complete distribution to the left you had to look at each subject within each exam centre (school or college) to try and determine whether the estimates were accurate or over-egged. The exam boards simply didn’t have time to do this properly, which would have looked at each student individually, so appear to have simply judged whether a course at an exam centre had been over-marked and if so marked everyone down.

Let’s say an exam centre gives all 60 students an A where in previous years the average would have been a C. The exam board could clearly see that was over-graded and should have tried to work out who should have really got an A and who should have got a D but they just didn’t have time to do that, probably didn’t even have the data to do it any way. So they just downgraded the whole course at that exam centre. This meant that some students fell victim of the down-grade.

So by the time you get to the moderation algorithm the data is so flawed that nothing was ever going to work. The data was already broken in two ways, over-grading by some exam centres and clumsy rectification by the exam boards. I imagine the algorithm was quite simple, quite naive, assuming that everyone had done their jobs more or less correctly and it was just going to smooth out the bumps. But there is no algorithm in the world that will deal with fundamentally broken data.

Scotland went though the same, even Sturgeon originally came out and said there was massive grade inflation (14.4% for Highers) which needed to be addressed but then had to U-Turn when they realised that their algorithm couldn't resolve the mess that had been created by the schools, colleges and exam boards.

In the time available, reverting to teacher grades was the only fair approach possible. It at least means that those that should have got A grades did get A grades. But it also means that a load of students that should have got B, C and D grades also got A grades.

Cheers,

Nigel
 
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