Predictions for when this will end

I agree. It would have kept the economy running and limit downstream devastation. I think many people are seriously underestimating the economic impact going forward.
Me too, it's going to be gigantic. Throw in unemployment, depression, anxiety, increase in child and doemstic abuse, workers rights will be thrown out the window, and working for minimum wage and longer hours, well get used to that too and forget retiring at 68

The only decent thing that might come out of it, the football bubble will probably burst, over paid sports stars and sickening amounts of Sky money that has runied the game might start to go into reverse
 
My brother in law and his wife have it. He was running half marathons, it's absolutely floored him. A colleague has had it and now 6 weeks later, she gets so breathless she cannot speak. She is otherwise fit and healthy, no underlying health conditions. I'd rather it didn't rip through me, thanks.
They say around 2 million people have probably had it and they don't even realise, Three cabinet members have had it along with Prince Charles and quite a few footballers who have all recovered within a week, yes it has the ability to claim lives but it isn't going to magically vanish. The country cannot and will not stay on lock down into June, it just isn't possible

It's a shame about those you know but they are alive, there will be loads losing their lives in other ways because of this. A friend of mine has Ovarian cancer, she was due in hospital just as the hospitals started cancelling appointments. She has managed to see a consultant this week who is sending her for a scan next week. She has gone from a healthy 10 stone to 6 stone, she will be lucky to make it to the end of the year. If she had received treatment earlier she might have got another 3 years, she has a 6 and 9 year old son. How many people like her will lose their life because of delayed appointments

The lock down is a huge joke anyway, when you look through the amount who are still permitted to work and you take out the NHS and it is the lower working class, delivery drivers, logistic warehouse workers, pickers and packers at Amazon, DIY stores, supermarket workers. This isn't going to stop, it isn't going to vanish
 
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I agree. It would have kept the economy running and limit downstream devastation. I think many people are seriously underestimating the economic impact going forward.

I agree fully with the economic concerns raised by yourself and ristac. No matter what somehow we as a society need to keep things moving as much as possible (even if its in a reduced form where necessary for now). How many years are taxpayers going to have to pay for the costs of this crisis.
 
The lock down is a huge joke anyway, when you look through the amount who are still permitted to work and you take out the NHS and it is the lower working class, delivery drivers, logistic warehouse workers, pickers and packers at Amazon, DIY stores, supermarket workers. This isn't going to stop, it isn't going to vanish

The only answer I can see there is continued testing of all of those workers and isolation for those who test positive (which we are not doing yet).

We almost need to move entirely to a delivery model for produce and supplies, closing supermarkets and shops so non-workers are not exposing workers to the virus. That would all take time to put in place and ramp up and there probably aren't enough delivery vehicles to make it practical.

I don't think it will go away soon because too many people are ignoring the self isolation rules - I can see evidence of that from my window.
 
What is evident is that the poorer members of society will be the ones who really suffer for years because of this. Living standards will drop sharply for most of us.
 
Watching it all happen from China to Italy and parliament arguing brexit without a reference to an impending epidemic was amazing. I was in despair as it happened and i knew it was going to be bad. Everybody seemed to argue with my perspective of starting to get on ahead in January to the point that i thought i must be stupid and parliament had no need to be alarmed. I really wish i was even more stupid than i am if parliament could have been proven correct. In the meantime my best friends wife at 50 years old is in intensive care on a ventilator and his children separated in isolation wards and my friend dealing directly in the hospital with infected people cannot go and see them. He tells me that this thing when it gets in you if you system is down in any way will be aggressive. Nobody is immune from this for sure. I guess we all must get on with it now

We were too slow to respond; we underestimated the impact; we had no contingency. So much needs to change.
 
The only decent thing that might come out of it, the football bubble will probably burst, over paid sports stars and sickening amounts of Sky money that has runied the game might start to go into reverse


Good luck with that! Fingers crossed it does but i predict nothing will change.

Footy fans are a fickle breed, by and large. They're the only ones who can change things, but I just dont think most of them care to.
 
I was in despair as it happened and i knew it was going to be bad. Everybody seemed to argue with my perspective of starting to get on ahead in January to the point that i thought i must be stupid and parliament had no need to be alarmed.

You weren't stupid, you were prudent.
 
Another thing, resentment WILL set in the longer it goes on.... The rich can lock themselves away, the elderly can lock themselves away claiming their pension who is the lockdown protecting? Not those that have no choice but to work, those I mentioned in post 127
 
The only answer I can see there is continued testing of all of those workers and isolation for those who test positive (which we are not doing yet).

We almost need to move entirely to a delivery model for produce and supplies, closing supermarkets and shops so non-workers are not exposing workers to the virus. That would all take time to put in place and ramp up and there probably aren't enough delivery vehicles to make it practical.

I don't think it will go away soon because too many people are ignoring the self isolation rules - I can see evidence of that from my window.
But people would need to load the vans, man the fuel pumps, work in the garages that fix the vans, you'd need to close down Amazon and the DIY shops and then when a van or lorry needs a spare part and there are none available then what?

In my opinion, the DIY shops have been allowed to remain open because the Government know the best chance they have of keeping everyone at home is to allow them to have something to occupy their mind and that would be DIY around the home. The Amazons of the world likewise, kids and teenagers buying games and gadgets.
 
Another thing, resentment WILL set in the longer it goes on.... The rich can lock themselves away, the elderly can lock themselves away claiming their pension who is the lockdown protecting? Not those that have no choice but to work, those I mentioned in post 127
Exactly mate. Hopefully things slowly pick up after the next few weeks, but for some reason I have my doubts. I think we're in for a very long ride buddy.
 
Watching it all happen from China to Italy and parliament arguing brexit without a reference to an impending epidemic was amazing. I was in despair as it happened and i knew it was going to be bad. Everybody seemed to argue with my perspective of starting to get on ahead in January to the point that i thought i must be stupid and parliament had no need to be alarmed. I really wish i was even more stupid than i am if parliament could have been proven correct. In the meantime my best friends wife at 50 years old is in intensive care on a ventilator and his children separated in isolation wards and my friend dealing directly in the hospital with infected people cannot go and see them. He tells me that this thing when it gets in you if you system is down in any way will be aggressive. Nobody is immune from this for sure. I guess we all must get on with it now
In regards to the "if your system is down" comment... I deliver for a pharmacy to the vulnerable and elderly. The pharmacists have their own opinions on it all but one thing they are all doing and that is hammering the fuits high in Vitamin C to boost their immune systems. The practice buy fruit in weekly for the staff, I am not saying it will stop you from getting it or cure you if you do but keeping your immune system as healthy as can be it obviously one key area.

Also the dosage which you are initially exposed to has a huge effect, I have seen it said many times that if you are exposed to a blast compared to someone who is exposed to the smallest amount and your chances of being hit hard go through the roof
 
But people would need to load the vans, man the fuel pumps, work in the garages that fix the vans, you'd need to close down Amazon and the DIY shops and then when a van or lorry needs a spare part and there are none available then what?

In my opinion, the DIY shops have been allowed to remain open because the Government know the best chance they have of keeping everyone at home is to allow them to have something to occupy their mind and that would be DIY around the home. The Amazons of the world likewise, kids and teenagers buying games and gadgets.

Anyone working would have to be included in the testing program as a priority. They are the ones who need to be protected and also most at risk of spreading it in the scenario I mentioned. DIY shops would have to be the same as other open shops - delivery only, effectively being distribution centres. It's extreme I know, but it would almost need people to have a permit to work and be out and about, to protect those workers. Frankly I don't think it's a practical solution, but I could see it cutting down the spread dramatically.

I don't think (my opinion so I could be wrong) that the government intended people to wander down to B&Q on the Easter weekend to choose a new colour of paint for the bathroom. I think the DIY shops are open so people can buy the stuff they need to fix minor problems without calling out a plumber or electrician, etc.
 
To be honest, I do wonder if the money the government has splashed out would have been better spent on keeping the elderly and vulnerable safe and allowing the virus to rip through the fit and healthy and run its course.
Keeping elderly safe, isolating the vulnerable.

250,000 deaths.


1586028574524.png
 
Keeping elderly safe, isolating the vulnerable.

250,000 deaths.


View attachment 1277519
So at the end of this, we might say we have saved 220,000 lives. I’m not saying it is the wrong or right decision, I‘m questioning what a lengthy lock down would do to people over the next 10 years. How much lengthy misery will it have caused, deaths in another form, mental illness, lasting effects of abuse, anxiety, it’s all unmeasureable.

It sounds callous but what’s the new buzz word? It’s “underlying” illness. When the press report on it they now say 800 deaths, then they’ll pick out 2-3 for a special mention as they died with “no underlying illness”.

17,000 people die in the UK from flu every year yet it never gets a mention and we have a vaccine for it. This isn’t going away, it will claim lives every year, it will eventually infect us all, some will die, others won’t even know they had it.
 
So at the end of this, we might say we have saved 220,000 lives. I’m not saying it is the wrong or right decision, I‘m questioning what a lengthy lock down would do to people over the next 10 years. How much lengthy misery will it have caused, deaths in another form, mental illness, lasting effects of abuse, anxiety, it’s all unmeasureable.

It sounds callous but what’s the new buzz word? It’s “underlying” illness. When the press report on it they now say 800 deaths, then they’ll pick out 2-3 for a special mention as they died with “no underlying illness”.

17,000 people die in the UK from flu every year yet it never gets a mention and we have a vaccine for it. This isn’t going away, it will claim lives every year, it will eventually infect us all, some will die, others won’t even know they had it.
None of this is good, we are trying to spread out the effect over a long period of time, it will not overload medical care that way.

Even so, it looks like if you are sick enough to go to hospital, sick enough to be on a ventilator, even if you survive you are going to be in a mess. Have a look at this:

 
Me too, it's going to be gigantic. Throw in unemployment, depression, anxiety, increase in child and doemstic abuse, workers rights will be thrown out the window, and working for minimum wage and longer hours, well get used to that too and forget retiring at 68

The only decent thing that might come out of it, the football bubble will probably burst, over paid sports stars and sickening amounts of Sky money that has runied the game might start to go into reverse
Anybody blaming or committing domestic abuse against their partners or children is a **** at anytime.
Don't blame circumstances for poor uncivilised behaviour.

Personally I believe some restrictions will be lifted by the end of May.
 
So at the end of this, we might say we have saved 220,000 lives.


Well you couldn't even say that as more people will die if the economy crashes due to the shutdown anyway.

I think that at the end of this there will be enough different stats floating around to support any argument.
 
corporation Tax will go through the roof, reducing the large dividend tax losses for privately owned companies, corporate arrogance and greed will be a thing of the past because there will simply be a much greater share distributed to the services that run the country.

Amen to that. Did it need corona virus for that to happen?

As for football...it’s about to have a major shock.....a completely broken business model of the majority of your turnover taken by wages will be gone, I can also see the premier league being sued by BT and Sky for breach of contract........you can’t play football if there is a 2 meter rule in place ....I digress.

Ah my heart bleeds for them. Not. The poor footballers wont be able to have 6 houses so they will have to suffer with 4 of them.
 
So at the end of this, we might say we have saved 220,000 lives..
Offset against that though is the number of lives that will be ruined by the upcoming recession/depression and all the second order effects. There will be deaths - be it suicide or the impacts of poverty - and there will be millions of others whose lives are immeasurably changed for the worse.

But we should also be clear about what Sonic's graph is showing - the predicted death rate by scenario up to August 2020. Whatever the scenario, the people in lock down will need to come out eventually...
 
We'll never get back to normal if they don't start testing people. I'll bet there are a load of people in lockdown who needn't be.
 
If the lockdown is scheduled to be reviewed a week Monday, when do you think we will hear if it’s to be extended?

I very much expect it to be extended but I can’t get it out of my mind that I’ll be back at work come the Tuesday after Easter weekend...

In my mind it’s better to prepare us ahead of time that businesses are to remain closed for longer. What do you guys think?
 
If the lockdown is scheduled to be reviewed a week Monday, when do you think we will hear if it’s to be extended?

I very much expect it to be extended but I can’t get it out of my mind that I’ll be back at work come the Tuesday after Easter weekend...

In my mind it’s better to prepare us ahead of time that businesses are to remain closed for longer. What do you guys think?
I think it will be extended and we’ll hear early this week. I personally feel they’ll extend it by two weeks max. The government is always going to be hammered, first it was the financial aid and how much? Then it was when are you going to close the schools? After that it was have we enough equipment and ppe for the workers? Last week they were being hammered over the testing and now exit strategy is creeping in.

Next week the government will be pressed for an exit strategy, pressure will mount to come up with one and the truth is, we’re probably watching what happens in other countries.
 
I think it will be extended and we’ll hear early this week. I personally feel they’ll extend it by two weeks max. The government is always going to be hammered, first it was the financial aid and how much? Then it was when are you going to close the schools? After that it was have we enough equipment and ppe for the workers? Last week they were being hammered over the testing and now exit strategy is creeping in.

Next week the government will be pressed for an exit strategy, pressure will mount to come up with one and the truth is, we’re probably watching what happens in other countries.
Extended by 2 weeks takes up till the end of April, that seems to me to be the least we need to do really.
Here is hoping people can actually remain selfless throughout!
 

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